Caribbean Report Quantified Solar Underreporting
New data reveals over 1,000 MW of hidden solar capacity, though regional reliance on fossil fuel imports remains high.
Updated on Oct. 1, 2026 in Energy
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Energy research organization Ember has published an analysis of 13 Caribbean nations, finding that solar installations are significantly higher than official records suggest. While 2,280 MW of capacity was likely installed between 2021 and 2024, only 1,269 MW appears in official counts.
Why it matters
The region is currently caught in a cycle of high energy costs, with fossil fuels accounting for over 90% of electricity generation. Dependency on these imports drives inflation and keeps electricity costs at an average of 25 cents per kilowatt-hour, more than double the median in other emerging economies.
Estimated solar installations reached 2,280 MW from 2021 to 2024, nearly double the 1,269 MW currently captured in official records. This delta was calculated by tracking solar module import volumes from China, providing a proxy for distributed energy deployment.
The players
Ember
An energy think tank specializing in data-driven analysis of global power sector transitions and renewable energy integration.
The details
Researchers derived the true solar capacity by analyzing trade flow data, specifically identifying the volume of photovoltaic modules imported from China into the region. These panels allow countries to reduce dependence on imported fuel, which currently drains significant portions of national GDP, such as 9.5% in Jamaica and 7.3% in Barbados. Despite the potential for lower-cost energy, systemic policy barriers continue to delay the transition to renewables.
Timeline
2008 and 2022: Global oil price shocks triggered inflationary pressures.
2021-2024: Estimated period for the installation of 2,280 MW of solar capacity.
2024: Renewables provided 9% of the total electricity generation across the thirteen studied countries.
June 2026: The Dominican Republic awarded renewable contracts incorporating battery storage.
The Tech Race
This analysis marks a departure from official government reporting, which has consistently undercounted the speed of distributed solar adoption in the Caribbean. The findings suggest the region is closer to meeting its 2030 renewable targets than policy records previously indicated.
Consumers in the Caribbean currently face an average electricity cost of 25 cents per kilowatt-hour, a figure directly influenced by high fossil fuel import reliance. Future energy prices and grid stability depend on whether governments clear current policy barriers to allow for the promised 23% renewable share by 2030.
The takeaway
The data suggests that the Caribbean's renewable transition is moving faster than official records imply, provided policy hurdles can be cleared. Stakeholders should monitor if upcoming government tenders match the June 2026 contract structure in the Dominican Republic to accelerate the 9% to 23% shift.
Further reading
For broader context on global shifts toward sustainable power, visit the Energy section.
Source note: This article includes information reported by Ember.
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