Europe Has Forecasted 80% Zero-Carbon Power by 2030
Despite projected growth in renewable capacity, the region is expected to fall short of its official policy targets.
Updated on Sept. 29, 2026 in Energy
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Wood Mackenzie has reported that Europe will reach 80% zero-carbon power generation by 2030, though the region is currently slated to miss its established renewable energy targets. The forecast accounts for a projected power demand of 4,103 TWh across 35 markets by the end of the decade.
Why it matters
Rising power demand, driven primarily by data centers, is shifting the energy trajectory toward a mix of increased renewable capacity and persistent reliance on natural gas. This evolution reflects the practical difficulty of meeting heating and electrification goals amid high costs and shifting infrastructure priorities.
By 2030, the region expects 637 GWac of solar PV and 163 GW of battery storage capacity, while natural gas generation capacity is forecast to reach 273 GW. This natural gas capacity is 6% higher than previous forecasts due to a supply gap created by offshore wind deployment shortfalls.
The players
Wood Mackenzie
A global research and consultancy firm providing data-driven intelligence on the energy, renewables, and natural resources industries.
The details
The energy mix relies on a combination of expanded renewable generation and life-extended nuclear power to offset the decline of coal, which is expected to fall from 457 TWh in 2025 to 237 TWh by 2030. Offshore wind installations have faced recent constraints, forcing a pivot toward natural gas to maintain grid stability. Meanwhile, the adoption of heat pumps remains tempered by high upfront costs and challenging electricity-to-gas price ratios across most markets.
Timeline
2025: Base year for power demand and EV consumption levels.
2030: Target year for 80% zero-carbon power generation.
2035: Offshore wind capacity is projected to reach 148 GW.
2050: EU27 coal fleet scheduled to exit the power mix.
2060: Final year of current market outlook and projections.
The Tech Race
This forecast shows the region trailing its official Fit-for-55 and REPowerEU renewable energy mandates. It reflects a shift in priority from pure renewable growth to a more conservative energy mix that includes nuclear life-extensions and increased gas reliance.
European power consumers should expect energy prices and grid availability to remain influenced by the sustained role of natural gas and rising demand from data centers. The transition away from coal is expected to accelerate significantly as the EU27 coal fleet exits the market entirely by 2050.
The takeaway
The region must balance rapid renewable scaling with the immediate infrastructure reality of high-cost electrification and gas dependency. Observers should track the 2035 offshore wind capacity benchmarks as a primary indicator of whether the region can close the gap toward its stated climate goals.
Further reading
For broader trends in infrastructure, read more on Energy.
Source note: This article includes information reported by Financial Post.
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