Astronomer Used Satellite Decay to Measure Atmosphere
Tracking orbital drag across thousands of satellites provides a new way to monitor atmospheric density shifts.
Updated on Sept. 25, 2026 in Space
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Astronomer Tony Phillips has developed a method for measuring Earth's upper atmospheric density using orbital decay data from commercial satellite constellations. This research-stage technique tracks how solar activity pushes the atmosphere into the path of orbiting hardware.
Why it matters
Satellite constellations have become massive, distributed sensor networks for measuring atmospheric drag, a critical factor in spacecraft longevity. Monitoring these shifts is essential for predicting satellite survival during solar-driven atmospheric swelling.
The analysis utilizes B-star values from U.S. Space Force Two-Line Element (TLE) tracking data to quantify orbital drag. This allows for the measurement of density fluctuations that occur with a two-day lag following solar radio flux emissions at 10.7 cm.
The players
Tony Phillips
An astronomer and author at spaceweather.com who tracks solar flares and geomagnetic field shifts.
U.S. Space Force
The military branch responsible for space operations that publishes TLE satellite tracking data.
The details
The method relies on the B-star term, a specific value in TLE datasets that represents the atmospheric drag acting on a satellite. When the upper atmosphere expands due to solar radiation, satellites experience increased friction, causing their orbits to decay faster than expected. Phillips aggregates this drag data across large constellations to map the density of the thermosphere.
Timeline
In 2022, a geomagnetic storm resulted in the destruction of 40 Starlink satellites.
On Tuesday, September 22, 2026, Phillips published the findings describing this barometer method.
The Tech Race
This research follows the pattern set by the 2022 geomagnetic storm that destroyed 40 Starlink satellites by providing a new tool to prevent similar future losses. It marks a departure from traditional atmospheric sounding by turning thousands of commercial assets into a high-density sensor grid.
This method offers a more precise way to predict when space weather events will endanger low Earth orbit assets. It will primarily benefit satellite operators who need to adjust station-keeping maneuvers in response to incoming solar radiation spikes.
The takeaway
Commercial satellite constellations are enabling a new era of real-time atmospheric modeling. Watch for future updates on spaceweather.com as more orbital data is integrated into existing geomagnetic forecasting models.
Further reading
For more on the current status of orbital mechanics and satellite environmental monitoring, visit Space.
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